Musharraf Out; Exiled Leaders In

When a ship is about to sink, the rats are the first to sense it.

Pakistan Muslim League (Q) leaders and the army of cabinet ministers know that Musharraf’s popularity, if he had any to start with, is sinking fast so they have started distancing themselves from him by keeping a low profile and by not coming to his rescue in the media, with same enthusiasm they had done before. He had to dare them, without success, to show their loyalty in the troubled times. Another sign of his vulnerability is that he has also started seeing a conspiracy in the country wide protests in the wake of his bungled Chief Justice firing.

Like his "buddy" Bush, Musharraf has become a lame duck. He could be out of power even before Bush leaves the White House at the end of next year. He has run out almost all of his options. He is fast becoming a liability rather than an asset for all those who have sustained him in power.

Bush could have waited a little longer after Dick Cheney gave Musharraf a “stiff message” in Islamabad a few weeks back and pushed him to do more against Taliban. But then he overreached and summoned Chief Justice in his court and unceremoniously kept him detained there until his replacement had been found and sworn in. He had intended to aggrandize and extend his power by removing the only hurdle left on his way to give himself another five years as president, another extension as Chief of Army staff, and another rigged election to his ruling party. But it all backfired.

He quickly realized his mistake and tried to regain his lost initiative by running to the TV channels and apologizing for botching the whole issue and for police attack on Geo TV station. But it proved to be too little to late. He has been unable, so far, to get out of the hole he had dug for himself.

In the end, he only succeeded in exposing his vulnerability. Corps Commanders held their meeting when he was in Jeddah, to participate in an American initiated anti-Iran Arab League conference, as a special guest of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.

Now, his fate will be determined by the success of American efforts to find the best possible way to show him the door. They are already working on it. There are two options open: to give him free rein and impose martial law; or give the exiled leaders a chance.

If you watch ISI that has better antennas and is more powerful than its two counterpart intelligence agencies - Military Intelligence and civilian Intelligence Bureau, America is taking the second apotion. ISI is for opening up the political process to the opposition parties. The other two agencies are for cracking down on them even harder. There is no way ISI will lose. It never has.

The only decision remained to be made is who is going to be the next horse and if that horse is going to make any distinction between Al-Qaida and Taliban, as Musharraf insisted on making.

If the exiled leaders, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, take up the challenge, as there is no doubt they are anxious to, they will be in and Musharraf will be out.

But then again, ISI will still be calling the shots. But everyone will be satisfied to call it a democracy. At least, for a while.